Wang H , Zhong X . An Empirical Study on the Impact of China’s OFDI on the Industrial Structure Upgrading of Countries along the Belt and Road and the Threshold Effect of Infrastructure Levels [J]. The Singapore Economic Review, 2021(4):1-41.
论文简介
This paper empirically investigates the impact of China’s OFDI on the industrial structure upgrading of countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) and examines the threshold effect of the infrastructure levels on that impact based on the panel data of 52 B&R countries from 2006 to 2017. The results show that China’s OFDI can significantly promote the industrial structure upgrading of B&R countries and that the Belt and Road initiative implementation can help to strengthen the promoting effects of China’s OFDI in the comprehensive FGLS, the Diff-GMM and the System GMM estimation. Moreover, China’s technology transfer OFDI has the greatest promotion effect, followed by capital transfer OFDI; labor transfer OFDI has the least promotion effect. China’s OFDI plays a larger role in promoting the industrial structure upgrading of Central Asia and South Asia countries, followed by ASEAN and CIS countries and it plays a smaller role in West Asia and Central-Eastern Europe countries. There is a threshold effect of the B&R countries’ infrastructure level. When the transportation infrastructure, energy infrastructure, communication infrastructure and overall infrastructure levels exceed the corresponding thresholds, the promoting effect of China’s OFDI will be further enhanced in the comprehensive FGLS estimation. Our study proposes that under the Belt and Road initiative, to improve the infrastructure level of the B&R countries, and to increase the effectiveness of China’s OFDI in promoting the industrial structure upgrading of the B&R countries, China should further strengthen international cooperation, expand outward investment, and strengthen the infrastructure connectivity construction with B&R countries.
本文利用2006-2017年52个“一带一路”沿线国家面板数据，实证检验了中国OFDI对沿线国家产业结构升级的影响，并考察了沿线国家基础设施水平的门槛效应。研究结果表明，中国OFDI能够显著促进沿线国家产业结构升级，“一带一路”倡议的实施有助于增强中国OFDI的沿线国家产业结构升级效应，且本文的研究结果在进行变量替换、差分GMM估计和系统GMM估计等稳健性检验后依然显著。在异质性检验中，中国技术转移型OFDI的促进效果最大，其次是资本转移型OFDI，劳动力转移型OFDI的促进作用最小；中国OFDI对中亚和南亚沿线国家产业结构升级的促进作用较大，其次是对东盟和独联体沿线国家，对西亚和中东欧沿线国家的促进作用较小。进一步地，沿线国家的基础设施水平存在门槛效应，当交通基础设施水平、能源基础设施水平、通信基础设施水平和整体基础设施水平超过相应的门槛值时，中国OFDI的沿线国家产业结构升级效应将进一步增强。本研究认为，在“一带一路”倡议下，为提升沿线国家基础设施水平，充分发挥中国OFDI促进沿线国家产业结构升级的有效性，中国应进一步同沿线国家加强国际合作，扩大对其直接投资规模，加强基础设施互联互通建设。