Wang, S., & Luo, R. Income distribution, financial liberalisations and banking stability: Theory and international evidence. International Journal of Finance & Economics.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2809
论文简介
Motivated by Rajan's study and existing economic reform theories (especially the lobby theory), we highlight income inequality as a driver of financial liberalisations. However, no evidence yet supports this idea. To verify this liberalisation-induced-by-inequality hypothesis, the nexus of income inequality and financial liberalisations is formalised and empirically investigated in this paper. We utilise an ordered logit model with two-way fixed effects and panel data from 91 countries to conduct the analyses. The baseline empirical results indicate that income inequality is a positive and significant determinant of financial liberalisations in aggregate and three component indicators. The results for three component indicators remain stable after a series of robustness checks, including mitigating the potential endogeneity via IV-2SLS, Lewbel instrumental variable technique and difference within group, assessing the bias from the unobservable variables, considering the persistent and learning effects of liberalisations and the interaction effects, alternating the measures of income inequality, reducing business cycle, and using financial reforms rather financial liberalisation as independent variable. The results for aggregate liberalisations are slightly unstable in models with persistent and learning effects. Thus, liberalisation-induced-by-inequality hypothesis is generally confirmed. In addition, the impacts of income inequality on financial liberalisations are widely heterogeneous across countries, the rate of change in income inequality and wealth inequality could also predict the occurrence of financial liberalisations, and the evidence that income inequality makes the poor easier access credits (i.e., Rajan's hypothesis) is found. Finally, the role is investigated of financial liberalisations in shaping banking stability, and we find that financial liberalisations can enhance growth and lower financial risks.
受到Rajan的研究以及现有的经济改革理论（尤其是游说理论）的启发，我们强调了收入不平等作为金融自由化的驱动因素，但目前还未有证据支持这一观点。为了验证这一由不平等引发的自由化假设，本文对其形式化并在实证中研究了收入不平等与金融自由化之间的关系。我们利用了一个来自91个国家的面板数据，且带有双向固定效应的有序logit模型进行分析。基础回归结果表明，收入不平等是金融自由化（包括三个组成指标）积极且显著的决定因素。在一系列稳健性检查中，包括了考虑自由化的持久性和学习效应以及相互作用效应，改变收入不平等的测量方法，减少商业周期，以及将金融改革而不是金融自由化作为独立变量，以及通过IV-2SLS、Lewbel工具变量技术和组内差异来减轻潜在的内生性问题，评估不可观测变量引起的偏差。三个组成指标的结果在这些检查后仍然稳定。在具有持久性和学习效应的模型中，总体自由化的结果略显不稳定。总体而言，我们确认了由不平等引发的自由化假设。此外，收入不平等对金融自由化的影响在各国之间普遍存在差异，收入不平等的变化率和财富不平等也可以预测金融自由化的发生，同时也发现了收入不平等使穷人更容易获得信贷（即Rajan的假设）。最后，我们调查了金融自由化在塑造银行稳定性方面的作用，发现金融自由化可以促进经济增长并降低金融风险。